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Watch Oil Before You Do Anything

Watch Oil Before You Do Anything

Here's my May playbook

May 05, 2026

Markets fell in March and rose in April exactly like the way they are supposed to work. What happens in May is still a mystery. While Indian markets do look well placed compared to 2 years back, Oil could still spoil the party, so I’d say watch Oil before you do anything else.

Oil in Daily timeframe

Since the war began Oil is up 62% in last 67 days. Currently it sits at $112/barrel and hasn’t been able to go past 114 decisively. If the war get’s worse it could eventually break above 114 and in return spike up prices for everything.

While I say Oil could spoil the party it’s important to note that there is a party going on in the markets and it’s time to start hunting for them. Today I’ll share some charts that I am looking at for some swing trades and also updates to my momentum portfolio which will have a year’s performance by the end of this month.

Firstly I’ll update my momentum portfolio for the month of May.

There are 4 changes for May. This portfolio currently holds 10 stocks, with the best-performing stock, Adani Power, at 54% returns.

Exit: TORNTPHARM, PNB, BRITANNIA, BANKBARODA
Add: CUMMINSIND, ADANIENSOL, ADANIGREEN, MUTHOOTFIN

I’ve doubled the holdings for this portfolio on Jan 6, effectively slashing the returns by 50% on each constituent and on the portfolio level as well.

Performance since inception (26 May 2025)

as on 5 May 2026
Portfolio: +2.50%
Benchmark: +5.67% (Nifty Jr)
Not beating benchmark

Next Rebalance Date: June 1, 2026